CNN —
Look out, Donald Trump is back and tougher than before.
That’s the message being sent by the president-elect’s just unveiled inauguration portrait in which he stares, stern and unsmiling, at the camera.
The image is a near copy of Trump’s mug shot from his Georgia election interference case that he successfully exploited to rally Republicans around his primary campaign. There’s one difference: in the earlier photo, Trump’s eyes blaze rage. In the new one, he looks steely, quietly triumphant – having overcome everything would-be assassins and prosecutors tried to take him down.
Trump looks like a new sheriff who just rode into town.
The theatrics suggest that after his inauguration on Monday, Trump will lean hard into his strongman persona in a way that will fuel fears that a president who always believed he had unchecked power will act like a king.
But it’s not the only path open to Trump. And perhaps not the wisest option politically, or for the wellbeing of a divided nation.
The president-elect has a chance given to only one previous president, Grover Cleveland, to start from scratch in a second term.
Reelected presidents habitually freshen their Cabinet teams and set new legislative and foreign policy priorities. But inevitably, the scandals, simmering political battles and unsolved crises from the first four years bleed over – one reason why second terms can be such a slog for exhausted administrations.
But Trump returns to the White House after four years away and has the chance to restock an entire governing team, set a new course and learn lessons from the past. It’s more like another first term than a second one.
Trump’s inaugural address just after noon on Monday may begin to answer the questions about the years ahead. What will he do with his do-over? Will it be more “American Carnage?” Or will he try to broaden his appeal and write a new legacy?
Trump has other advantages that could make him a more effective president the second time around.
He is coming to power with a new governing coalition, having made electoral inroads with minorities, working-class and younger voters, peeling away traditional Democratic constituencies. Trump has also added a new MAGA wing – made up of tech titans who flocked to Mar-a-Lago following a path beaten by Tesla and X boss Elon Musk, who spent millions to elect Trump.
And a new CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday suggests the president-elect has the narrowest of political openings. He’s enjoying the most positive ratings of his political career with a 46% favorable rating and majority approval for his handling of the transition. So far, there’s little sign of the tide of resistance and protest that greeted the president-elect when he moved into the White House the first time.
And while many Americans are struggling with high prices, elevated interest and mortgage rates and the reality of a blue-collar industrial base hollowed out by globalization, President Joe Biden will leave his successor a sound economy.
There’s one more thing. Trump, having pulled off the greatest political comeback in history, is largely free for the first time in years of the stress of being under criminal investigation.
Most presidents use their inaugural addresses to heal the political wounds opened by vicious election campaigns. Trump chose to do the opposite in his first effort – which was followed by a bizarre showdown with the press over the size of his crowd on the National Mall, which, in retrospect, was a perfect metaphor for a head-spinning four years.
America could use some calm. The country is fractured and internally estranged. While tens of millions of Americans will be jubilant and feel vindicated by the 47th president’s inauguration, millions more are scared. Feelings of dread are palpable over the prospect of a president who tried to destroy democracy in his first go-around and now promises vengeance.
The idea that Trump could change and become ‘presidential’ was used so often by media commentators during the first term that it became a punchline. There won’t be a new Trump. The ex-president who left office in disgrace after denying his election loss will come back into office still flinging threats. But he may have a short time window to change perceptions of his political career.
Why Trump may squander his second chance
Early signs are not promising for those hoping Trump’s first term, which included two impeachments, is not an inevitable blueprint for a second.
Trump filled his transition with wild social media posts packed with venom and falsehoods. He hasn’t ruled out invasions of Greenland and Panama. He helped topple Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and is warning of global trade wars. And he’s chosen a Cabinet that includes picks who in a conventional administration would be considered unqualified. And Kash Patel, his choice to lead the Federal Bureau of Investigation, has suggested he’d chase Trump’s enemies.
Asked about Patel’s comments, attorney general pick Pam Bondi said in her Wednesday confirmation hearing, “There will never be an enemies list within the Department of Justice.” But she showed no sign she’d push back against a new round of Trump challenges to the rule of law and the Constitution. Pete Hegseth, the former Fox News anchor in line to lead the Pentagon, wouldn’t say whether he’d obey an order from Trump to shoot protesters in the legs.
Expectations that Trump will follow through on a purge of government bureaucrats are already rising following reports that the Trump transition had vetted National Security Council staffers over their political leanings. Ohio Rep. Mike Turner was, meanwhile, relieved of his chairmanship of the House Intelligence Committee by Speaker Mike Johnson. He was replaced by Arkansas Rep. Rick Crawford, a Trump loyalist who, unlike Turner, voted against more aid to Ukraine – in line with the president-elect’s position on the war.
All of this is a reminder that while many Americans might wish Trump could be less confrontational, MAGA politics is defined by getting in the grill of adversaries and stretching the limits of power and the rule of law.
Republicans are also already confronting disagreements over how to push Trump’s vast agenda through Congress. The complications of the tiny House majority means there’s no guarantee that Trump will get the fast start he wants. A huge row is brewing after Johnson suggested using a forthcoming aid package for California fire victims as political leverage. And Trump’s new buddies in the tech industry are so entwined in potential conflicts of interest that scandals are possible, which could haunt the new administration for the next four years.
The inevitable drama that will ratchet up when Trump is back in charge threatens to constantly distract the president from doing the one thing that could ensure his second term is more successful than the first: solving the issues that voters sent him back to the White House to fix.
Trump built his Electoral College majority on promises to cut prices for basic staples like eggs, bacon and butter. He pledged to halt undocumented migration at the southern border. And he played into the belief among some suburban voters that diversity and gender inclusion policies – blasted by conservatives as “woke” – were rampant in schools and workplaces.
Trump has already admitted his vow to end the Ukraine war in one day was overly optimistic. And he’s even admitted that his promise to lower prices will be very difficult to carry out. “I’d like to bring them down. It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up. You know, it’s very hard,” Trump said in an interview with Time Magazine conducted in late November and published last month.
Voters don’t seem too convinced either. Only about 2 in 10 Americans in a new AP-NORC poll are “extremely” or “very” confident that Trump will make progress in lowering the cost of groceries, housing or health care this year.
And while Trump may get bipartisan support for his border crackdown, his promised mass deportations will be expensive, hard to pull off and may turn out to be politically unpopular.
The president-elect’s rock-solid support with his base voters mean he’s unlikely to suffer heavy losses among Republicans if things go south. But plunging approval among the swing voters who elected him would put the narrow House GOP majority in severe jeopardy in the 2026 midterm elections and effectively end his domestic presidency.
The new sheriff with the fixed stare may be back in town. But he’s got a heap of choices to make that will dictate his own and the country’s course.