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Ilena Peng, Mia Gindis, Kevin Crowley and Jacob Lorinc
3 min read
(Bloomberg) — Oil supplies are on the way up and prices are dropping, giving plenty of fodder to attendees of CERAWeek, the global energy conference kicking off in Houston Monday. The fate of 11 million metric tons of US grains is up in the air over trade policy uncertainty. And gold miner earnings show whose on top.
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Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodity markets as the week gets underway.
Oil Production
President Donald Trump’s America is producing more barrels of oil each day than any other country in history, giving the US unprecedented power in global energy markets. There are, however, questions over how long this rein of influence can last. OPEC+ agreed to increase production starting next month, helping drive prices below $70 a barrel to the lowest this year. At this level, there’s little incentive for US shale drillers to increase production. Companies may instead decide to preserve their finite runway of future well locations.
Oil Bets
A deluge of bearish factors, such as trade wars and the unexpected OPEC+ supply hike, is contributing to the worst crude-market sentiment in recent history. Money managers reduced gross long positions in West Texas Intermediate by 2,266 lots to 172,576, close to lows not seen since 2010, in the week ended March 4, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Long-only bets on Brent were cut by 41,583 lots for the biggest raw-number decline since July, according to figures from ICE Futures Europe.
Agriculture
Traders are watching for potential cancellations of US grain contracts as tariffs and trade uncertainty between Mexico, Canada and China escalate. More than 11 million metric tons of grains have been sold but not yet shipped to the US’s top-three trading partners, according to US Department of Agriculture data for the week ending Feb. 27. The biggest concern for traders is that Mexico, the top buyer of US corn, will drop some of its 7.6 million tons of contracted cargoes. China has 1.4 million tons of outstanding soybean sales, and Canada has a small amount of unshipped grains.
Gold
The biggest gold miners are jostling for dominance over the bullion market. Newmont Corp. expanded its position as the world’s leading producer last year thanks to added output from its 2023 takeover of Australia’s Newcrest Mining Ltd. Meanwhile, Barrick Gold Corp.’s lead over Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. narrowed after output fell amid a series of operational setbacks. Agnico Eagle threatens to overtake its bigger rival if Barrick’s mine complex in Mali remains closed this year.