Fundamental Overview
The US Dollar this week has been erasing some of the losses experienced last week after the benign US PPI and the Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. There hasn’t been any notable catalyst this week to support the greenback although some analysts pointed to less dovish comments from Fed’s Waller on Tuesday which would explain the rise in Treasury yields afterwards.
On the AUD side, the RBA cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected bringing the Cash Rate to 4.10% but it was accompanied by a more hawkish than expected guidance. Today, we got the Australian Employment report and once again the data showed a solid labour market. Moreover, the AUD got a boost as Trump talked about the possibility of a new trade deal with China.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
AUDUSD Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD bounced on the key support zone around the 0.6330 level as the buyers piled in following a series of positive news for the Australian Dollar. The sellers will need the price to fall below the support zone to regain conviction and start targeting the lows around the 0.61 handle.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
AUDUSD 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. We can expect the buyers to continue to lean on it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break below the trendline and the support to increase the bearish bets into new lows.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
AUDUSD 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we’ve been having a rangebound price action this week as the US Dollar regained some ground. The price is now close to the upper bound of the average daily range for today, so from a risk management perspective, the buyers would be better off waiting for another pullback into the trendline/support before positioning into new highs.
Upcoming Catalysts
Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the US Flash PMIs.