Dow drops 700 points for worst day of 2025 so far on new fears about economic growth: Live updates – CNBC

Trading in 30-day fed funds futures contracts Friday now suggests roughly 55% odds that the Federal Reserve will cut rates two to three times by the end of the year, to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% from 4.25% to 4.50% today.

The odds on Thursday stood at about 44.4%.

Even by the time of the Fed’s October policy meeting, market odds now stand at roughly 50-50 that the central bank will cut back on lending rates by one half to three quarters of a percentage point, whereas on Thursday, futures trading pointed to only about a 38% chance.

— Scott Schnipper

The logo of copper miner Freeport-McMoRan Inc is displayed on the company’s offices in Phoenix, Arizona, on June 30, 2022.

Ernest Scheyder | Reuters

The S&P 500 materials sector dropped 1.8% on Friday and is once again 10% below its high-water mark from last October, according to FactSet.

Materials entered this week as the best-performing sector in 2025. The group includes steel stocks that could benefit from a more protectionist U.S. trade policy under President Trump. The sector is still up more than 4% year to date.

Freeport-McMoRan and Newmont Corporation were the two biggest laggards in the group Friday, falling about 5% each.

— Jesse Pound

The S&P 500 briefly dipped below its 50-day moving average level of 6,009.95 during Friday’s sell-off.

The equity benchmark was trading below the technical level for the first time since Feb. 12 on an intraday basis. The S&P 500 has not closed below that level since Jan. 16.

— Yun Li, Gina Francolla

Consumer discretionary stocks are on track to notch their worst weekly performance in more than a year.

The S&P 500 sector slid more than 3% in Friday’s session, bringing its week-to-date loss to 4.7%. If that holds through Friday’s closing bell, it would mark the biggest weekly loss since September 2023, when the sector dropped more than 6%.

Cruise stocks Carnival and Royal Caribbean led the sector down with drops of more than 11% each. Caesars Entertainment and Chipotle were also among the biggest losers, notching slides of more than 11% and 10%, respectively.

With this week’s decline, the sector is down nearly 4% in 2025.

— Alex Harring

Cans of soup made by the Campbell Soup Company are displayed for sale at a grocery store in Chicago on Sept. 12, 2024.

Scott Olson | Getty Images

Friday’s sell-off pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite below their 50-day moving averages in afternoon trading.

The blue-chip Dow was last down about 1.8%, trading below its 50-day moving average level of 43,695.91 for the first time since Jan. 21. The index has not closed below its 50-day moving average since Jan. 20.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq, meanwhile, was last down around 2%, trading below its 50-day moving average level of 19,686.10 for the first time since Feb. 12. That index has not closed below its 50-day moving average since Feb. 7.

— Sean Conlon, Gina Francolla

The iShares China Large-Cap ETF and the iShares MSCI China ETF are up 2% and 1.6%, respectively, for the week.

The two China-focused funds are headed toward their sixth consecutive week of gains.

Investors have bought into Chinese stocks in recent weeks as DeepSeek’s latest release in January fueled enthusiasm for technology companies and other artificial intelligence plays in China.

— Hakyung Kim

The recent slump in stocks could be tied to Wall Street seriously considering the effect of tariffs and seeing consumers changing buying patterns as a result, according to Harris Financial Group managing partner Jamie Cox.

“It’s pretty clear that markets are waking up to the consumer impact of tariffs. While the tariffs themselves may never get implemented, consumers are voicing their opinions with major changes in buying behaviors and sentiment about the prospects of their implementation,” Cox told CNBC.

 “The good news is that markets are taking some wind out of the recent inflation in the sails. The 10-year is catching a bid as investors are moving to be more cautious,” he continued.

— Brian Evans

HIMS 5D chart

Semaglutide, better known by its brand names Ozempic and Wegovy, is a GLP-1 drug used to treat diabetes and obesity. This announcement follows the FDA’s decision in December to end the tirzepatide shortage. Tirzepatide is a similar injectable weight loss treatment that is more commonly known as Zepbound or Mounjaro.

Hims & Hers offers cheaper versions of the drug, called compounded semaglutide, for its customers by combining ingredients to customize treatments. Compounding pharmacies are only allowed to sell brand-name medication when there is a shortage.

Hims & Hers will be able to use its compounding facilities until May 22 based on the FDA’s decision. The telehealth firm will next report earnings on Feb. 24.

— Brandon Gomez, Lisa Kailai Han

People shop in a supermarket in the Manhattan borough of New York City on Feb. 20, 2025. 

Charly Triballeau | AFP | Getty Images

Consumers grew increasingly pessimistic in February as inflation fears heated up, according to the latest University of Michigan survey.

The headline consumer sentiment index plunged to 64.7, down 9.8% from January and below the Dow Jones estimate for 67.8. The level also was 15.9% below the same level a year ago. The indexes for current conditions and forward expectations also slumped, according to the report, which was the final revision for the month’s data.

On inflation, the one-year expectation leaped to 4.3%, the highest since November 2023. At the five-year horizon, the outlook surged to 3.5%, the highest reading since April 1995. Worries have increased on inflation amid looming fears over the effect of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

“While sentiment fell for both Democrats and Independents, it was unchanged for Republicans, reflecting continued disagreements on the consequences of new economic policies,” said survey director Joanne Hsu.

— Jeff Cox

Manufacturing grew at a slower-than-expected pace this month, while services unexpectedly contracted, according to data from S&P Global.

The firm’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 51.6, below the Dow Jones estimate of 52.8. The services PMI, meanwhile, fell to 49.7, its lowest level in more than two years, while economists had forecast a print of 52.8.

“Optimism about the coming year slumped to its lowest since December 2022, except for last September, when business was unsettled by uncertainty ahead of the Presidential election. The deterioration in February was primarily a reflection of increased uncertainty about the business environment, especially in relation to federal government policies related to domestic spending cuts and tariffs,” S&P Global said.

— Fred Imbert

Correction: A previous version misstated the Dow Jones estimate for the services PMI.

Shares of Coinbase rose 3% in early trading after the company said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has agreed to drop an enforcement action against the company, pending commissioner approval.

The announcement comes as the SEC under the Trump administration is expected to take a more friendly approach to crypto than the previous leadership.

“I hope that they’ll dismiss all the bogus cases, frankly, and it will be a domino effect for the rest of the industry,” Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong said CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

— Jesse Pound

The S&P 500 opened slightly lower on Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was under pressure due to a sharp pullback in UnitedHealth stock.

The broad market index lost 0.07%. The 30-stock Dow pulled back 232 points, or 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2%.

— Brian Evans

Check out the companies making headlines before the bell:

• Celsius Holdings — The energy drink maker skyrocketed more than 31% after surpassing expectations for fourth-quarter earnings and entering an agreement to acquire Alani Nutrition in a cash and stock deal. Celsius earned an adjusted 14 cents per share on $332 million in revenue, while analysts polled by LSEG penciled in 11 cents in earnings per share and $326 million in revenue.
• Dropbox — Shares of the cloud software company fell more than 9% on mixed quarterly results. Block reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 83.1% in the fourth quarter, in line with analysts’ expectations, per StreetAccount. The company’s adjusted earnings and revenue in the period topped consensus forecasts.
• Block — Shares tumbled 8.8% after Block reported a top- and bottom-line miss in the fourth quarter. The fintech company posted adjusted earnings of 71 cents per share on $6.03 billion in revenue. Analysts polled by LSEG expected earnings of 87 cents per share on revenue of $6.29 billion.

— Hakyung Kim

CrowdStrike could see major gains ahead, according to Barclays.

Shares of the cybersecurity company gained 0.5% in the premarket Friday after the firm hiked its price target to $506 from $372 heading into the company’s scheduled earnings release on March 4. Its updated target implies 16% upside from Thursday’s close.

“We are modeling 4Q net new [annual recurring revenue] of ~$190M,” analyst Saket Kalia wrote to clients. “We think the upside scenario could be $210-215M based on strong checks, several large federal deals and traction with Falcon Flex.”

The stock has outperformed the broader market already this year, advancing more than 27% compared to the S&P 500’s year-to-date gain of 4%. Shares have also risen more than 49% over the past 12 months.

— Sean Conlon

Omar Marques | Lightrocket | Getty Images

UnitedHealth shares sank around 8% before the bell on Friday after The Wall Street Journal reported that the insurer is under investigation by the Justice Department.

The investigation centers on Medicare billing practices, sources familiar with the matter told the Journal. The DOJ is looking at UnitedHealth’s protocol for recording diagnoses that can lead to extra payments on Medicare Advantage plans, according to the report.

— Alex Harring

Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, thinks investors should not run away from stocks after Thursday’s Walmart-led decline.

Instead, they should “embrace the broadening theme and position for money to continue shifting away from the handful of mega-caps that dominated the market for so long (i.e. bias the equal-weight S&P and small/mid-caps over the cap-weighted S&P and Nasdaq).”

However, risks remain for Wall Street, he said.

“Our main concern (in addition to rich valuations) is still Washington, where myriad risks loom on the horizon (shutdown, tariffs, the debt ceiling, the reconciliation process, etc.) — even if one takes the most generous view (“it’s all just a negotiating tactic”), weeks of extreme uncertainty will bleed into the real economy by freezing activity and decision making (the “it’s just a negotiating tactic” though does have some credence,” said Crisafulli.

— Fred Imbert

Bearishness toward the outlook for stocks over the next six months dropped to 40.5% of those polled in the latest weekly American Association of Individual Investors survey, down from about a 15-month high of 47.3% last week.

Pessimism remained above the historic average of 31.0% for a fourth straight week.

Optimism remained muted again, too, with bullishness coming in at 29.2% of respondents, up a hair from 28.4% last week, but below the historical average of 37.5% for a third straight week. The remainder were neutral about the outlook for stocks.

Contrarian investors take above-average bearishness and below-average bullishness as good signs for the market, meaning that more investors have finished their selling and more idle cash remains on the sidelines waiting to move into stocks.

— Scott Schnipper

Thu, Feb 20 20256:33 PM EST

Palantir headquarters in Palo Alto, California, on May 10, 2023.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Palantir’s recent pullback may provide an opportunity for investors, according to Sylvia Jablonski, CEO of Defiance ETFs.

The defense stock slid more than 5% during Thursday’s regular session and nearly 2% in extended trading Thursday, adding to its 10% loss in Wednesday’s session. Those moves come on the back of Palantir CEO Alex Karp pursuing a new stock trading plan.

“I think that this is short-term news, right? I think the sale is just that he’s overconcentrated in one stock that has made him incredibly wealthy and others incredibly wealthy, and they’re diversifying,” Jablonski said during “Three-Stock Lunch” on CNBC’s “Power Lunch” on Thursday.

Also on Wednesday, The Washington Post reported that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth plans to trim the U.S. defense budget. While this helped drive the stock lower over the past two trading days, shares have still soared more than 354% over the past 12 months.

“They’re the premier [artificial intelligence] defense company,” Jablonski continued. “I think that any dip for Palantir is a dip for me. I’m a buyer here.”

— Sean Conlon

Thu, Feb 20 20256:17 PM EST

Cans of Celsuis Arctic Vibe Sparkling Frozen Berry energy drink on display during the Celsuis Arctic Vibe Launch Party at Joia Beach Club in Miami Beach, Florida, on July 21, 2022.

Aaron Davidson | Getty Images

These are the stocks moving the most in extended hours trading:

• Celsius Holdings — The energy drink company surged 28% in extended trading. Celsius posted adjusted earnings of 14 cents per share on revenue of $332 million in the fourth quarter, topping analysts’ expectations for 11 cents in earnings per share and $326 million in revenue, per LSEG.
• Dropbox — Shares slipped nearly 6%. The cloud storage company said its non-GAAP gross margin came in at 83.1% in the fourth quarter, in line with analysts’ expectations, per StreetAccount.
• Block — The fintech stock dipped 6% after Block reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 71 cents per share on $6.03 billion in revenue.

Read the full list of stocks moving here.

— Lisa Kailai Han

Thu, Feb 20 20256:03 PM EST

Stock futures traded near flat Thursday.

Futures tied to all the major averages were hovering around the flatline shortly after 6 p.m. ET.

— Lisa Kailai Han