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From Ukraine to immigration, hear what German voters are saying concerns them most
00:51 – Source: CNN
• Friedrich Merz is likely to become the next German chancellor after his conservative CDU topped the vote in elections, exit polls project. The stuttering economy and immigration were major voter concerns.
• The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) almost doubled its vote share and surged into second place. But it is likely to be frozen out of power as other parties are refusing to work with it.
• SPD, the party of the current Chancellor Olaf Scholtz slumped to third place, with just 16% of the vote – its worst showing since the end of World War II.
• The election came against a backdrop of the Trump administration transforming historic security ties with Europe and moving ahead with peace talks on Ukraine. CNN’s international diplomatic editor said the outcome of the election is pivotal to the continent and to Kyiv.
• Whoever wins, coalition talks are a near-certainty. Single parties rarely win majorities in German elections so Merz will have to open talks with other parties on forming a government.
The headquarters of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) filled with cheers and applause as the exit polls were revealed and it became clear that the opposition party was set to become the largest group after Sunday’s election.
Younger party members were clapping and chanting at the CDU’s election party in Berlin as the party appeared to have emerged as the strongest force in the next German parliament.
The CDU’s headquarters, the Konrad Adenauer Haus, is packed with party top brass and journalists from around the world. The party had long been the favorites to take the largest share of the vote.
Outside the building, a small group of protesters demonstrated against what they perceive as party leader Friedrich Merz’s hard line on immigration.
Protesters held signs with flames drawn on them, accusing the CDU of possible cooperation with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Merz has denied wanting to cooperate with the AfD.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is expected to have secured 16% of the vote on Sunday, according to exit polls, a huge 9% fall compared to the last election in 2021, and its worst result in modern history.
Still, the SPD would have breathed a sigh of relief as it avoided a complete wipe-out and managed to hang on to third place in the election – some opinion polls ahead of the vote had suggested the party, which came top in 2021, could be competing for the third spot with the Greens.
That did not happen as the Greens ended up fourth with 13.5% of the vote.
Still, Scholz’s future as the party leader remains uncertain – there were rumors even before the election that some in his party wanted Boris Pistorius, the current defense minister, to replace him as the party’s top candidate.
Alice Weidel, the co-leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), said the party has “never been stronger” as she took to the stage at an election party after exit polls were announced.
“We have never been stronger – we are the second biggest force,” Weidel said, in words that were met by wild cheers from the crowds in attendance at the event in Berlin.
“We are the only party with a double-digit score compared to the past elections,” she continued, adding, “in the next elections we will take over from the CDU (Christian Democratic Union) and be in the first place.” Her words indicate how the party already has its eyes firmly on the next election in 2029.
The mood at the AfD election party was ecstatic as it emerged that the party had almost doubled its support, with people cheering and waving Germany flags.
The first numbers in Germany’s snap election are coming in, and it looks like the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is set to return to power. A huge cheer ran through the conservative party’s headquarters as the first exit polls were announced.
This means Friedrich Merz, an old-school conservative who has never held a government role previously, will likely become the new chancellor of Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and most populous state.
If the exit polls stand, it looks like the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has achieved its highest result yet – almost doubling its support from the last election in 2021. This is a predicted significant boost in support for the party, which likely now stands as Germany’s largest opposition force.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) looks set to come in third – a major turnaround since the 2021 election, when it took 25.7% of the vote.
The Sahra Wageknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly missed out on the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament, while The Left party comfortably made it over that line, taking a significant 8.5%.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to get 19.5% of the vote in the German parliamentary election, exit polls show.
This is the best showing for a far-right political party in Germany since the end of the Second World War.
The AfD has almost doubled its share of the vote compared to the last election in 2021.
Friedrich Merz is likely to become the next German chancellor after his conservative CDU tops the vote in elections, as the far-right AfD party surges into second, exit polls project.
Polls in the snap election are closing at 6 p.m. local time, with first exit polls expected immediately after voting stops.
Here is what to watch for when those first numbers come in:
How is AfD doing?
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expecting to see its best result yet. Opinion polls ahead of the vote have consistently showed AfD second with around 20% of the vote, the strongest polling for a far-right party since the end of World War II.
But unless the opinion polls turn out to be significantly off, the AfD is likely to remain in opposition because of the unwritten rule of German politics that blocks far-right parties from taking part in the government.
How bad is SPD’s decline?
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is widely expected to lose ground in this election – the key question is by how much.
Having become the largest party in the 2021 election, opinion polls indicate it looks set for a downward swing in votes by around 10 points. That would put it not only behind the AfD, but fighting it out with the Greens for third.
Which coalition is most likely?
Unlike other governments, such as in the US, coalitions are a natural part of German politics.
An electoral system known as proportional representation, established after World War II, makes it almost impossible for a single party to win power. The exit polls could give a good indication of the shape of the next German government.
Germany’s socialist Die Linke, or Left Party, has enjoyed a late surge in the polls ahead of Sunday’s elections, following a fiery speech against fascism by its leader.
The Left Party – whose roots can in part be traced back to the communist East Germany’s ruling party – looks set to comfortably reach the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament, latest polls show.
It follows powerful speeches delivered by its rising star leader, Heidi Reichinnek, in January, which quickly gained widespread attention online.
“I say to everyone out there: don’t give up, fight back, resist fascism,” the 36-year-old told parliament as she called for action against the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and those who work with it.
“To the barricades!” she declared passionately, showing a tattoo of Rosa Luxemburg, the symbol of the revolutionary left, on her left forearm. The speech, which has now been viewed more than 6.5 million times on TikTok, electrified supporters.
Her speech was delivered after Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), broke a longstanding taboo by relying on AfD votes to pass a motion aimed at cracking down on migration. The move, which shattered the mainstream parties’ anti-AfD “firewall,” sparked large protests across Germany that month.
Since that pivotal moment, Die Linke has seen a rise in support. Just weeks ago, the party’s poll numbers were below the 5% threshold, but a recent YouGov poll put the party on 9%.
While much attention has been on the far right in Germany’s election, a rival radical part could also make headlines too.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) was formed in 2024 by Sahra Wagenknecht, a former Left Party lawmaker and a veteran of Germany’s hard left.
Wagenknecht has described herself as a “conservative leftist” – in naming her party after herself, an unusual move in German politics, she’s hoping to capitalize on her personal prominence.
It attracts former supporters of the Left Party as well as, surprisingly, those of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), and is largely popular in Germany’s eastern states.
It takes a left-wing stance on economic issues, and advocates for job security and higher wages.
However, when it comes to immigration, the BSW is closer to the AfD in its policies. In fact, there is considerable overlap between the two parties’ policy agendas, and they share an interest in weakening Germany’s political mainstream. Still, the BSW has said it will not work together with the AfD.
The BSW has also called for an end to sending arms to Ukraine, and has a Russia-friendly stance.
The party will be hoping to pick up at least 5% of the vote on Sunday – thereby enabling it to enter Germany’s parliament.
The Alternative for Germany’s (AfD) deputy parliamentary leader has told CNN that the German population are ready for change, and that consequently support for the far-right party will continue to rise.
“The German are voting for a change, they want to have a change in politics, this is what the CDU is promising and this what the CDU will not deliver,” Beatrix von Storch told CNN at the AfD’s election evening party in Berlin.
“You know when a opposition party like our party, doubles their numbers from one election to the next, it shows that something is dramatically going wrong and people want something else,” she continued.
“This is why they support AfD even though we have got a tremendous fire against us.”
The German parliamentary election on Sunday falls on the same day as many regional and municipal carnival celebrations and some German voters are taking advantage of the festive atmosphere and opting to cast their ballots in some rather unorthodox outfits.
Several people in costumes were photographed at a polling station in Damme in Lower Saxony, where a carnival celebration billed as “the largest in northern Germany” is taking place alongside Sunday’s election.
The carnival was founded in 1614 and attracts some 10,000 visitors every year, according to its official website.
Carnivals can be a big deal across Germany and to ensure a smooth day, the Federal Returning Officer issued a special carnival-related guidance ahead of the vote.
The four-page document outlines the rules for attending a polling stations in a festive attire. Costumes are allowed, but anyone wearing a face mask or a heavy make-up may be asked to remove them so that the election officials can establish their identity.
However, the guidance makes it pretty clear that election officials overseeing the voting in polling stations should probably stay away from costumes. “When choosing their clothing, they must ensure that the impartial performance of their office is not called into question. Therefore, it is best to avoid wearing costumes,” the rulebook says.
And while the guidance reminds officials that there is no law prohibiting drunk people from voting, should a reveller turn up intoxicated to a degree where they are causing disruption, it is ok to remove them from the polling station until they behave.
A string of attacks in Germany, including a recent car-ramming incident in Munich, have fueled the country’s sensitive migration debate.
Last week, a car ploughed into demonstrators in the Bavarian capital, leaving two dead and scores injured. The suspect is a 24-year-old asylum-seeker from Afghanistan, whom authorities believe may have had Islamist extremist tendencies.
The deadly incident in Munich followed other recent attacks thought to have been carried out by asylum-seekers due for deportation, all of which have reignited Germany’s debate on migration.
In the wake of a deadly knife attack in Solingen last year, the German government tightened its asylum regulations and resumed deportation flights to Afghanistan for the first time since the Taliban’s takeover of the country.
The AfD in particular has tapped into anti-migrant sentiment, with co-leader Alice Weidel repeatedly calling for “migration change.”
Changing attitudes: Germany has shifted much further to the right than it was in the days of former Chancellor Angela Merkel. During the migrant crisis of 2015-16, Merkel’s government threw open Germany’s doors, with Merkel declaring at the time “Wir schaffen das,” or “We’ll manage it.”
Germany’s liberal migration policy, in comparison to those of its neighbors during these years, became known as “Wilkommenskultur,” or “Welcoming culture.”
Now, with a surge in support for parties with a tough stance on immigration, and Berlin in September introducing new controls at all of Germany’s land borders, the country’s welcoming approach to migrants feels like a distant memory.
German voters have – so far – turned up in higher numbers than during the last parliamentary election four years ago, early federal and state data show.
The German federal returning officer said that as of 2 p.m. local time, voter turnout stood at 52% nation-wide. That’s significantly above the 36.5% recorded at the same time of the day four years ago.
A higher turnout early in the day was recorded across multiple states on Sunday, including North Rhine-Westphalia, Thuringia and Saxony-Anhalt.
Election officials in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, said that by 2 p.m. local time, some 63% of voters have cast their ballots. They said this was a higher turnout compared to four years ago.
In Saxony-Anhalt have, 52.6% of voters turned up by 2 p.m. local time, according to the state’s election officials. That was also significantly higher than the 36.7% recorded at the same time in 2021.
The state returning officer in Thuringia, a heartland of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, said that 59.2% of eligible voters had voted by 2 p.m., compared to just 34.5% at the same time four years ago.
But not all states are showing the same pattern — in Saxony, 39,6% of voters showed up by 2 p.m., just over three percentage points above the 36,4% recorded at the same time four years ago.
If there was one stand-out moment in this election campaign, it was Elon Musk’s giant floating head appearing on a screen at an Alternative for Germany rally in the eastern city of Halle.
His appearance was a surprise for the 4,000 strong crowd and the reporters covering the event… but it probably shouldn’t have been.
Elon Musk had been wading into this election from early on, and he clearly picked a side with the AfD. In Halle he told the crowd “the future of civilization” was hanging on the vote.
The AfD have tried to hitch their wagon to Musk and harness his star-power. Speaking to CNN in Halle, party leader Alice Weidel told CNN “I wish [Elon Musk], Donald Trump and JD Vance all the best blessings for their next tenure”.
Last week at the Munich Security Conference, Vance delivered a withering attack on many European allies but also singled out Germany.
He attacked the ‘firewall’, the unwritten rule of German politics which freezes out the far right in decision making.
He said “democracy rests on the sacred principle that the voice of the people matters. There’s no room for firewalls. You either uphold the principle or you don’t”.
Just hours later news emerged that Vance had shunned a meeting with Olaf Scholz, instead opting to meet with Weidel.
Will it matter? How much influence the two have had on an electorate worried about domestic matters remains to be seen.
But the Trump administration has certainly fueled the AfD’s legitimacy claims – and they have been running with it.
Unlike other governments, such as the US, coalitions are a natural part of German politics.
An electoral system known as proportional representation, established after World War II, makes it almost impossible for a single party to win power.
In Sunday’s election, it is very hard to see an outcome where the CDU/CSU and Friedrich Merz do not emerge victorious.
However, due to this system, the CDU will likely have to form a coalition with one, or more, of the other parties. The question is who?
Merz has categorically ruled out working with the AfD, meaning that a coalition of the two big centrist parties – the CDU and the SPD – is one possibility.
The CDU and SPD have already governed together four times since WWII. However, with Merz’s attempts to move the CDU further to the right than it was under Merkel’s leadership, the two parties could clash on issues such as immigration and welfare spending.
If the CDU needs to form a three-way coalition in order to make up a majority, it could choose to govern with the SPD and either the environmental Greens or the business-focused Free Democrats (FDP).
At 46, Alice Weidel is the youngest of all the candidates in this year’s election. It is the first time since its foundation that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has nominated a candidate for chancellor.
Before Weidel went into politics, she studied economics and has a doctorate in international development. She worked for Goldman Sachs and lived in China for a few years, where she learnt Mandarin.
Weidel has quickly risen to become the party’s public – some say, friendly – face. She has sought to distance herself from the more radical wings of the AfD and worked to clean up the party’s public image.
Weidel is in a civil partnership with a Swiss woman who was originally born in Sri Lanka and has two children. Her private life is somewhat at odds with the AfD conservative stance on many issues.
Since the turn of the year, she has openly courted the new US administration. Talking directly with Elon Musk and JD Vance.
Populist policies, particularly around migration, are her main campaign points. She openly talks about a policy called “remigration” which would see deportations of migrants from Germany.
She told CNN in an interview in January “we have no borders. Imagine that a state, a country like Germany, doesn’t have any borders. So, the country doesn’t decide on who comes in and out.”
Germany’s struggling economy will be front of mind for many voters in Sunday’s election.
The world’s third-largest economy has barely grown since the pandemic. It shrank both in 2023 and last year, posting the first back-to-back annual contractions since the early 2000s. And this year, it is set to grow by a paltry 0.3%, according to International Monetary Fund forecasts.
Polls show the economy is a major concern for voters, many of whom will remember the boom times: Between around 2005 and 2019, Germany was thriving, propelled by Chinese demand for its exports, a relatively frictionless global trading environment and cheap natural gas from Russia.
But the world has changed dramatically since then.
China’s economy has slowed, while its carmakers, such as electric vehicle manufacturers BYD and Xpeng, have snatched market share from Western rivals, like Volkswagen. Natural gas has become more expensive in Europe following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which is weighing on Germany’s energy-intensive industries.
And now US President Donald Trump is imposing new tariffs on imports into America and threatening more levies still — a headache for Germany’s exporters in particular as the US is their single biggest market.
“A world in which free trade is not the… dominant economic mantra is problematic for Germany,” Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington, DC-based think tank, told CNN.
You can read more on how Germany’s economic woes are playing into the election here.
The leaders of Germany’s main political parties have all cast their votes on Sunday, hoping they can beat expectations and secure a strong position for the inevitable post-election negotiations.
The leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and frontrunner to be next chancellor Friedrich Merz voted in the western German city of Arnsberg, his home town. He was accompanied by his wife of nearly 44 year, judge Charlotte Merz.
The current German Chancellor and the leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) Olaf Scholz and his wife and fellow SPD politician Britta Ernst cast their ballots in the city of Potsdam, near Berlin.
Scholz’s SPD is widely expected to be heading for a defeat in the snap election that was triggered when he lost a vote of confidence in the German parliament, the Bundestag.
Scholz’s own future as the head of the party is uncertain – one poll last September ranked Scholz as the least popular German chancellor since reunification and there were rumors before the election that his party wanted Boris Pistorius, the current defense minister, to replace him as the party’s top candidate.
Adel, 33, software engineer, a Syrian migrant who obtained German citizenship a few months ago, said “the difficulties with German-American relations right now are quite pressing.
“The migration debate is complicated. I migrated to Germany and I can sense the pressure even from people who are not from migration backgrounds. Somehow I can see a point of view from both sides so maybe some middle ground can be made.”
Stefan, 64, a consultant, says the migration debate in Germany is “important, but overrated.”
“It’s a right-wing issue that produces votes for the extreme parties. In the end, I believe it is something we need to handle, but we need to have migrants coming into this country for economic reasons.”
Mark, 48, a healthcare worker, believes the most important issues in the German election are “not the ones being discussed.”
“We need big reforms in healthcare, for nursing, for the care of elderly. It’s important to do something for the environment and we need to have a strong Europe.”
Ralf, 57, who runs an app for international recruiting: “I think the most important issue is to keep the country together and Europe together.
“I’m pretty sad not only about the US involvement but their view on Europe, on Ukraine, on Putin. I cannot understand this and I’m really afraid of it.”
Matilda, 22, a university student: “I think migration is a problem that’s been made a lot bigger by the media.”
Matilda believes the focus should be more on helping migrants integrate properly into German society. “We definitely have problems in that regard with integration, we could do a lot better.”