Israel this week introduced what it said was a new U.S. ceasefire plan — different from the one it agreed to in January — and is trying to force Hamas to accept it by imposing a siege on the Gaza Strip.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred to it as the “Witkoff proposal,” saying it came from U.S. President Donald Trump’s Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff. But the White House has yet to confirm that, saying only that it supports whatever action Israel takes.
Netanyahu’s remarks came a day after the first phase of the negotiated ceasefire ended, with no clarity on what would come next since the agreement’s second phase has not yet been hammered out.
The new plan would require Hamas to release half its remaining hostages — the militant group’s main bargaining chip — in exchange for a ceasefire extension and a promise to negotiate a lasting truce. Israel made no mention of releasing more Palestinian prisoners — a key component of the first phase.
Hamas has accused Israel of trying to sabotage the existing agreement, which called for the two sides to negotiate the return of the remaining hostages in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a lasting ceasefire. But no substantive negotiations have been held.
On Sunday, Israel halted all food, fuel, medicine and other supplies to Gaza’s population of some 2 million people and vowed “additional consequences” if Hamas did not embrace the new proposal.
Arab leaders are meanwhile finalizing a separate plan for postwar Gaza to counter Trump’s suggestion that its population be relocated so it can be transformed into a tourist destination.
But all bets are off if the war resumes.
The existing agreement is in limbo
The ceasefire reached in January, after more than a year of negotiations mediated by the United States, Egypt and Qatar, laid out a three-phase plan to return all the hostages taken by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, and ending the war triggered by the attack.
Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people that day, mostly civilians, and took 251 hostage. More than 100 were released in an earlier ceasefire. Israeli forces rescued eight and recovered dozens of bodies before the current ceasefire took hold.
During the first, six-week phase, Hamas released 25 living Israeli hostages and the bodies of eight more in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Israeli forces withdrew from most of Gaza and allowed an influx of desperately needed humanitarian aid. Each side accused the other of violations, but the deal held.
Phase 2 was always going to be far more difficult because it would force Israel to choose between securing the return the hostages and annihilating Hamas — two of Netanyahu’s main war goals.
Hamas, which remains in control of Gaza, has said it will only release the remaining hostages if Israel ends the war. But that would leave the militant group intact and with major influence over the territory, even if it hands over formal power to other Palestinians, as it says it is willing to do.
The new plan favors Israel
Hamas still has 59 hostages, 35 of whom are believed to be dead. Under the so-called Witkoff plan, it would release half the hostages on the first day — apparently without getting anything new in return.
The sides would then have around six weeks — through the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and the Jewish Passover holiday ending April 20 — to negotiate a permanent ceasefire and the return of the remaining hostages.
But with fewer hostages, Hamas’ hand would be weakened, and Israel and the United States are already speaking about new conditions — like the disarmament of Hamas or the exile of its leadership — that were not part of the original agreement.
A political lifeline for Netanyahu
Netanyahu’s narrow coalition is beholden to far-right allies who want to eliminate Hamas, depopulate Gaza through what they refer to as “voluntary emigration” and rebuild Jewish settlements in the territory. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has threatened to bring down the government if Netanyahu enters Phase 2 of the existing agreement and does not resume the war.
The new plan would buy Netanyahu six weeks of breathing room and enough time to pass a budget by the end of the month — something he must do to keep his government from automatically falling. If it falls, elections would be held roughly a year and a half ahead of schedule and could see him removed from power.
Opposition parties say they would ensure Netanyahu’s government is not brought down over a deal that returns the rest of the hostages. But that would still weaken him politically.
The American position is unclear
Netanyahu says his government has “fully coordinated” its approach with the Trump administration, which has publicly endorsed Israel’s war goals, including the eradication of Hamas. But Witkoff has not said a word in public about the plan that supposedly bears his name, and U.S. officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Monday.
Trump himself has sent mixed signals about Gaza.
As a candidate, he pledged to end wars in the Middle East, and he took credit for pushing the ceasefire agreement past the finish line just before his inauguration.
But he has also expressed revulsion at Hamas’ treatment of the captives and suggested that “all hell” should break loose if they are not immediately returned, while leaving that decision to Israel.
An Arab counterproposal to Trump’s Gaza plan
Trump has also floated the idea of relocating Gaza’s roughly 2 million Palestinians to other countries so the U.S. can rebuild it as a tourist destination. Netanyahu welcomed that proposal, which was universally rejected by Palestinians, Arab countries and human rights experts, who warn it could violate international law.
It’s hard to see how Trump’s Gaza plan would be carried out without Israel resuming the war and launching an even bloodier offensive than the last one, which left much of Gaza in ruins and killed over 48,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities. They say more than half of those killed were women and children but do not specify how many of the dead were combatants.
Egypt has developed a counterproposal expected to be endorsed at an Arab summit in Cairo on Tuesday. Under its plan, Palestinians would remain in Gaza and relocate to “safe zones” while cities are rebuilt. Hamas would hand over power to a transitional authority of political independents while the international community works to empower the Western-backed Palestinian Authority.
But Israel, which has ruled out any role for the Palestinian Authority in postwar Gaza, is unlikely to accept such a plan. And while Trump has called on Arab countries to come up with their own proposal, it’s unclear whether he would go for it either.
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Associated Press writers Tia Goldenberg in Tel Aviv, Israel, and Samy Magdy in Cairo contributed.
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Follow AP’s war coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war