Wrecked Russian vehicles in Kursk.
Via Kriegsforscher
“AT THIS VERY MOMENT, THOUSANDS OF UKRAINIAN TROOPS ARE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY THE RUSSIAN MILITARY, AND IN A VERY BAD AND VULNERABLE POSITION,” U.S. President Donald Trump wrote in all caps on social media on Friday.
Trump’s rant is a clear reference to the Monday or Tuesday evacuation of around 10,000 Ukrainian troops from what was once a 250-square-mile salient they held in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
The Ukrainians are beaten. But they’re not surrounded. “It’s a lie,” wrote Kriegsforscher, a Ukrainian drone operator who fought in Kursk.
“Our team has a good understanding of the situation in Kursk,” Tatarigami, the founder of Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian analysis group, chimed in. “There are no encircled troops.”
A strong Ukrainian force invaded Kursk in August, aiming to seize a swathe of Russian soil that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could eventually trade back to Russian President Vladimir Putin in exchange for Ukrainian soil the Russians occupy.
For six months, the salient held. Then, on Feb. 25, an elite Russian drone group—the Rubicon Center of Advanced Unmanned Systems—launched a devastating wave of attacks on the main supply line supporting the Ukrainian garrison in Sudzha, the center of the Kursk salient.
Captured Ukrainian artillery in Kursk.
Via Russian social media
Drone offensive
Employing what analyst Andrew Perpetua described as “advanced drone tactics” including elaborate ambushes involving multiple explosive drones, Rubicon swiftly knocked out hundreds of Ukrainian vehicles—and essentially strangled the Ukrainian brigades in Kursk.
Two weeks later on Monday or Tuesday, the Ukrainian survivors slipped out of Kursk, leaving behind some precious heavy equipment but preserving thousands of lives.
“The retreat was generally organized but occasionally chaotic,” Tatarigami wrote. “There is no threat of encirclement, and no evidence suggests otherwise.”
In falsely claiming thousands of Ukrainians are at risk of death or capture, Trump is effectively parroting Putin’s position as possible ceasefire negotiations loom.
Finally resolving a two-week falling out precipitated by a disastrous Feb. 28 press conference in the Oval Office, during which Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance absurdly berated Zelensky for being insufficiently grateful for past U.S. aid, Kyiv and Washington finally agreed to the basic terms of a potential 30-day ceasefire.
Moscow must agree to the same terms—or demand its own. Trump claimed informal talks with Putin were going well, and that the Russia-Ukraine war could end soon.
But Trump seems to have framed initial discussions around the false claim that Russia is essentially holding hostage thousands of Ukrainians in Kursk. “I have strongly requested to President Putin that their lives be spared,” Trump wrote.
But there aren’t thousands of Ukrainian troops in Kursk any longer. They left days ago, despite what Putin may claim. “It’s wise to rely on intelligence,” Tatarigami advised, “not Putin’s word.”