Turmoil churns below the surface as Rubio meets NATO foreign ministers – politico.eu

Rubio, originally seen as a traditional transatlanticist, now represents a president who has broken with decades of U.S. foreign policy. Rubio “will have messages for us Europeans, and we Europeans will have messages for him,” said a senior NATO diplomat.

U.S. President Donald Trump has lit a fire under the 75-year-old transatlantic alliance.

His threats to annex Greenland, possibly by force, have torched relations between Washington and Copenhagen. Undermining Canadian independence has turned an ally into a hostile neighbor. His warnings that the U.S. may not defend NATO allies who don’t spend enough on their militaries undermines the alliance’s common defense pact.

Vice President JD Vance’s dismissal of Moscow as a threat to Europe is alarming countries on Russia’s doorstep. Trump’s ending arms flows and intelligence support to Ukraine as a way of pressuring Kyiv into peace talks, and then attacking President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the White House, has dismayed allies.

And reports suggesting the U.S. wants to start moving weapons systems from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region — possibly even giving up military command of NATO in Europe — have allies scrambling for answers.

These issues will cast a pall over Thursday’s meeting — but don’t expect either side to draw attention to the widening gulf. Instead, European allies will highlight efforts to ramp up defense spending — a Trump demand — as well as emphasize the need for unity and restate their commitment to NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause — something Trump himself has undermined.

“We have to realize what kind of challenges we’re all facing,” Latvian Defense Minister Andris Sprūds told a think tank gathering in Paris this week. “A challenge to one NATO nation means a challenge to all NATO nations.”

The refrain that NATO continues to be the bulwark of Europe’s security system is heard in public across the continent. In private, diplomats and politicians are a lot more worried that NATO no longer serves its purpose of tying the U.S. to Europe in a joint defense bond.

In another sign of deteriorating relations, the ministers will be gathering a day after Trump unleashed a global trade war hammering NATO allies with high tariffs. The European Union, the United Kingdom and Canada will be scrambling to come up with a response during the NATO meeting.

Fighting over Greenland

First on the list of difficult issues: Greenland — the Kingdom of Denmark territory that Trump has vowed to acquire “one way or another.” Rubio is due to sit down with Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen on the sidelines of the meeting in the first direct U.S.-Danish contact in weeks, although a Danish foreign ministry spokesperson said Greenland would not be on the agenda.

As the meeting takes place, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen will be in Greenland showing support for the island that both Denmark and Greenland insist will never join the U.S.

Anxious to avoid a clash within NATO over the issue, Secretary-General Mark Rutte dodged questions about the U.S. claims to the island on Wednesday. Asked who should control Greenland, he replied: “The question has to do with the wider issue of how to defend the Arctic.”

Trading views on Ukraine

Ministers will also be at pains to paper over diverging views on Ukraine, as Trump has sidelined Europe in peace talks involving Washington, Ukraine and Russia, and has highlighted his preference for Russian leader Vladimir Putin over Zelenskyy.

“The question is: What will they [the U.S.] be asking the Europeans?” said Majda Ruge, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“Since the Trump administration wants to entice Putin to agree to a ceasefire by offering carrots — rather than using sticks —  the release of frozen assets and the lifting of sanctions, including the EU sanctions, is likely going to be on the table.”

However, European countries insist they will not ease sanctions on Russia until the war ends, and maybe not even then.

Then there are questions over whether the Trump administration will continue sending weapons to Ukraine — it has not placed any such request with Congress — and whether the Americans would assist with any European deployment to the war-torn country. The U.S. has backed out of chairing the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which organizes military aid to Kyiv, handing that task over to the U.K. and Germany.

Additionally, there is a deep divergence over whether Ukraine’s future is within NATO.

America out of Europe

There’s also the matter of Washington’s reported plans to start moving troops and weapons systems from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region. The foreign ministers of NATO’s four Asia-Pacific partners — Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea — will attend this week’s meeting.

There are even reports that Washington may seek to hand over the role of Supreme Allied Commander Europe, the alliance’s top military job, to a European — for the first time since NATO’s founding.

Another irritant is efforts by the EU to boost its domestic defense industry with the use of special funds — projects that will likely largely exclude U.S. arms-makers, which is angering Washington.

The main conversation about “burden-shifting” is expected to take place later among defense ministers, then in June when NATO leaders gather in The Hague. But European capitals are still pushing for clarity on the pace of plans to move assets out of Europe.

One of the most pressing issues for Europeans is how to replace so-called enablers, such as surveillance, reconnaissance and targeting abilities, as well as command and control systems and air refueling aircraft, which are currently mainly provided by the U.S.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is hoping to define a roadmap with the U.S. to anticipate any withdrawal or decrease of American assets and troops in Europe, he told reporters in Paris last month, but hasn’t heard back from Washington yet.

Any move on shifting burdens “needs to be consulted” within NATO, said a senior EU diplomat. “It needs to happen in such a way that if the Americans reduce their presence in Europe — in any way, shape or form — that that happens with a pace that we can fill the void.”