- EUR/USD depreciates as the US Dollar Index rebounds from its monthly low at 107.22.
- The US Dollar receives support from uncertainty surrounding the impact of US President Donald Trump’s policies.
- The Euro struggles as the ECB could cut its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points on Thursday.
EUR/USD edges lower to near 1.0480 during the Asian session on Monday as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against its six major peers, recovers from its monthly low at 107.22, reached on Friday. The DXY trades near 107.60 at the time of writing.
The US Dollar gains ground following the mixed US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. The uncertainty surrounding the impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies could support the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious approach to cutting interest rates this year.
Data released by S&P Global on Friday showed that the US Composite PMI declined to 52.4 in January from 55.4 in December. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.1 in January versus 49.4 prior, beating the estimation of 49.6. The Services PMI dropped to 52.8 in January from 56.8 in December, below the market consensus of 56.5.
However, the EUR/USD appreciated as the Euro received support as the HCOB Eurozone preliminary Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) grew in January after shrinking in the last two months. Flash HCOB PMI report, compiled by S&P Global, showed that overall business activity expanded. The Composite PMI rose to 50.2 from 49.6 in November. Economists expected the PMI to continue to decline but at a slower pace to 49.7.
However, the Euro struggles due to dovish sentiment surrounding th European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy outlook. The ECB is all set to cut its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% on Thursday and will continue to follow the process in the next three policy meetings as officials are confident that inflationary pressures will sustainably return to the desired rate of 2%.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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